The 2026 Housing Market is Right here: 3 New Strikes We’re Making This 12 months

Dave:Blissful New 12 months, everybody. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, head of actual property investing at BiggerPockets. I hope you all had an important vacation and are excited as I’m to develop your portfolios this 12 months. Immediately, we’re kicking off the 12 months with New 12 months’s resolutions. And for that, I’m joined by my on- the-market co-host, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington. We’re going to share our objectives for the 12 months, the methods we’re planning to realize these objectives and the dangers we’re avoiding in a altering market. A heads up that this present will even be revealed on the On the Market podcast feed over this New 12 months’s break, and ensure to tune in subsequent week for my annual state of actual property investing present and an enormous announcement for the BiggerPockets podcast you’re not going to need to miss. With that, let’s soar in. Kathy, Henry, how are you?Blissful New 12 months. Blissful New 12 months to you.

Henry:Blissful New 12 months.

Dave:I’m not going to lie and fake that we’re recording this within the new 12 months. It’s not likely the New 12 months, however proactively to everybody. We’re recording this in December, however completely happy New 12 months to all of you. Kathy, you may have some nice vacation plans. Inform everybody what you’re as much as. You’re at all times someplace enjoyable.

Kathy:Properly, sure, I’m in Paris recording this from a cave.

Dave:You actually appear like you’re in a medieval large vendor proper

Kathy:Now. I’m fairly certain I’m. I’m within the oldest a part of Paris, however I’m right here for the Christmas markets and primarily as a result of my daughter is getting married in France. So I needed to come see the venue together with her. Had

Dave:To.

Kathy:After which it’s also-

Dave:You needed to.

Kathy:I needed to, and it’s the final 12 months of the northern lights being actually intense. So we’re going to take a bit journey as much as the North Pole, to the North of Norway.

Dave:Oh, that’s so nice. Wow. What a enjoyable journey. Henry, what have been you as much as within the holidays?

Henry:Meals.

Dave:Sufficient set,

Henry:Actually. Completely. I imply, I’ve little children, so I do get to benefit from the pleasure of Christmas nonetheless, in order that’s enjoyable, however largely I’m consuming my method by means of the vacations.

Dave:Yeah. Good for you. All proper. Properly, let’s soar into at this time’s episode as a result of I actually need to simply begin trying ahead. Final 12 months was a fascinating … I wouldn’t name it an important 12 months. I used to be going to say it’s an important 12 months. I’d not have referred to as 2025 an important 12 months. That might’ve been a straight up lie. I’m feeling optimistic going into 2026 and nearly actual property typically. So let’s discuss this by way of what our New 12 months’s resolutions are. We’ll begin with actual property, however if you wish to throw a non-real property one in, I’d love to listen to them. However Kathy, what’s your actual property New 12 months’s decision?

Kathy:Properly, I’ve a couple of, however one is to actually dive into AI becauseRich truly purchased a very costly program and he’s completed it and I’ve not. I’m not even shut. However I do know it’s so highly effective. I imply, one of many issues that Wealthy did is he uploaded every part. Our financial institution statements, the money stream, our system is aware of every part about us. And after we add it, we might know which properties are performing nicely, which aren’t. I imply, we needs to be realizing that anyway, however I really feel like generally it’s simple to get lazy otherwise you’ve simply owned properties for some time and haven’t actually taken a glance. Is that this nonetheless a superb performer? So utilizing AI to optimize our portfolio is my purpose for actual property.

Dave:I like that lots. I like this as a purpose. It’s not like, oh, I’ve to purchase this property by this date. That is extra like a development mindset form of purpose. How do you simply evolve as an investor typically to be able to make higher selections going ahead? Is that program, is that actual property particular?

Kathy:No, no, it was only a bunch of enterprise homeowners. However I imply, it’s like he’s received a enterprise marketing consultant now. All of our enterprise financials are in there and we had each worker element what they do, not in a canine form of method, however I suppose form of like what do you do all day? And so AI is aware of every worker and is aware of the right way to optimize for them. It’s actually been phenomenal.

Speaker 4:Wow.

Kathy:And we had top-of-the-line months ever for our firm final month. I don’t know if it has to do with that or not, however that’s unusual, proper? At a time when actual property has been so sluggish, gross sales have been sluggish, we had a very good

Dave:Month. That’s superior. So it sounds such as you’re utilizing AI not simply to establish properties or offers, however work on and in your small business as nicely.

Kathy:Yeah. I imply, what number of instances do you actually know what your insurance coverage covers?

Dave:Actually by no means.

Kathy:So with, I’ll say Claude, for instance, we will add our total insurance coverage factor. There’s a phrase for it.

Henry:Your insurance coverage binder? Yeah.

Kathy:Yeah, that factor, the binder. To only actually know the main points of your insurance coverage coverage and even ask it, “Hey, is that this masking me for every part I would like for this funding property on this explicit state?” It’s actually phenomenal with what’s accessible to us and it’s solely going to get higher, so why not be on the reducing fringe of it?

Dave:I find it irresistible. Henry, are you utilizing AI usually?

Henry:The brief reply is sure, however I’d be mendacity to you if I advised you I used to be utilizing it on a a lot deeper stage than simply the floor stage asking for assist with sure objects. Now, I did attempt to construct one thing just like what Kathy was speaking about about two months in the past the place I used to be importing transaction knowledge and knowledge from my property supervisor as a result of I wished to see if AI might give me a way of how nicely sure properties are performing. And I assumed if I might add the precise financial institution statements and marry that towards the information out of your property supervisor who’s truly going out to the properties, doing the precise repairs. After which I wished to marry that towards what I’m spending with contractors on sure properties to get only a fowl’s eye view of my portfolio. And it was very difficult in ChatGPT. And so I’m questioning if I ought to strive Claude or Gemini or a type of.

Kathy:Claude is so good for enterprise.

Dave:Oh, actually? I received to test that out as a result of Henry and I have been simply in Seattle and folks have been raving about Gemini.

Kathy:Yeah.

Dave:I really feel prefer it’s a horse race proper now. One releases a brand new one and it will get a bit bit higher after which the opposite one will get a bit bit higher, however there’s not a transparent winner. I simply must let you know guys, I received a bit little bit of a behind the scenes take a look at an enormous actual property firm’s new AI instrument. It’s not BiggerPockets, however there’s one other one which’s going to launch one quickly. I received to do the beta. It’s so freaking cool. It’s unbelievable how good the evaluation and details about properties and markets. For a knowledge analyst, this factor is so cool. I’m tremendous excited to start out utilizing these sorts of instruments in my very own evaluation. However I’ve to ask you guys, perhaps I’m only a full management freak, however I exploit this for analysis, however I double test every part

Kathy:That

Dave:I do nonetheless, proper? Okay,

Kathy:Good. As a result of it nonetheless makes a lot of errors. It’s not there but, however it is going to be. It is going to be. So studying the issues that we’re studying. And backside line, the purpose for me for doing all that is I need to see if I can … Wait, let me say that in a extra highly effective method. I’m going to extend cashflow by 10% by optimizing our portfolio, whether or not which means taking some older properties that aren’t actually performing and 1031 exchanging them into higher ones or simply taking a look at issues like we purchased lots 10 years in the past as a result of we have been dwelling at a home the place somebody was going to construct this mega field property that block our view. And so we purchased the lot they usually wouldn’t do it and now we don’t reside there anymore and we simply form of haven’t finished something with it. We tried to promote it.No person wished only a lot. In order that’s one factor. It’s like, how do I optimize this piece of land that’s simply been sitting there and we’re paying taxes on? And so I’ve been working with a manufactured housing firm and we’re going to place manufactured housing on that lot. And so once I’m doing an entire new factor and it’s truly going to money stream in CaliforniaCalifornia.Yeah. And if my daughter ever decides she desires to maneuver down the road from us, there’ll be a home there for her. Intent. However yeah, it’s form of simply stuff like that. Simply form of taking a look at what we now have, the theme is extra isn’t at all times higher. Take a look at what you may have and make it higher.

Dave:That’s nice. Properly, I feel that is an superior New 12 months’s decision. I actually like this concept of getting higher at AI as a result of I’ll admit, I’m concurrently excited by AI and really, very terrified of it and terribly uninterested in it. And so generally I simply select to disregard it as a result of I’ll see these deep faux movies on-line and I’m like, “AI is evil.” However you then discuss all these items that AI is superb for. I simply want to determine the proper method to make use of it for my enterprise that is sensible and never be overwhelmed by the societal implications that may be coming with AI on the similar time.

Kathy:For certain. I imply, an instance is simply, I’ve been working lots with Claude, that’s what I exploit and asking for LA County, what do I must find out about manufactured housing? Inform me this step-by-step course of. And it’s not 100%, it’s not simple, however it helps it really feel not as daunting.

Dave:All proper. Properly, I like this. This can be a nice New 12 months’s decision. Thanks for bringing this one, Kathy. We received to take a fast break, however we’ll be again with Henry’s New 12 months’s decision proper after this. Welcome again. I’m right here with Kathy and Henry sharing our objectives, New 12 months’s resolutions for 2026. We heard Kathy’s, which I like about getting higher at utilizing AI. Henry, what’s your New 12 months’s decision despite the fact that you don’t like them?

Henry:No, I don’t like them. And I at all times really feel awkward when folks ask questions like this due to the form of investor I’m. I simply do outdated, boring actual property, Dave. I purchase distressed properties, I repair them up after which I hire them out or I promote them. And I feel when folks ask about resolutions, they anticipate to listen to some tremendous bold, artistic factor that you just’re doing. Like an enormous pivot,

Dave:Such as you’re making some change. Yeah. Yeah.

Henry:And my objectives are very comparable every year as a result of I simply need to proceed to do what works and what’s labored for generations, which is one other iteration of the identical factor. However now that I’ve positioned that caveat, primarily I consider investing in three buckets the place you’re both rising, you’re stabilizing otherwise you’re defending.And we as buyers function in usually two of these buckets at a time, closely weighted extra so on one than the opposite. And in order I began in 2017, I’ve been much more centered on development. So my objectives every year have been at all times round what number of extra property do I would like to accumulate? What number of extra tasks do I must flip to provide me the funding to accumulate these property? However now I’m in a spot the place I’m extra centered on stabilization and safety. And to me, safety is paying off. And so my objectives for 2026 or my decision, if you wish to name it that, is extra centered round stabilization, optimization just like Kathy, and paying off debt. So I’ve a stretch purpose of paying off two properties in 2026. And I do know two doesn’t sound like lots, however we’re speaking about utterly clearing the debt on two property, which I feel is an enormous deal.So I need to repay two of my property and there’s about 4 property that I must stabilize as a result of I’m bleeding cash in them proper now.A few of them my very own fault, a few of them, no fault of my very own. One specifically, I purchased a duplex, not in a flood zone, and we had a loopy flash flood and it tore by means of each items of the duplex. After which on prime of that, an enormous mistake occurred with one of many remediation firms the place they did some work unauthorized to the tune of $40,000. So I’ve a couple of $40,000 invoice that we’re preventing as a result of they weren’t imagined to do the work. And I’ve a couple of $50,000 renovation I’m going to must fund out of pocket. So these are large ticket objects. They don’t simply come very simple. In order that property proper now’s a duplex that I pay month-to-month all of the bills on, however has no revenue. So stabilization is an enormous deal for me in 2026. I even have some multifamily property I purchased in 2023.Once more, no fault of my very own. The town has are available and is requiring me to do some work that we didn’t plan on doing that the place you’ll be able to’t actually battle. So there’s lots that occurs in an actual property portfolio that I feel requires you to take a step again and consider. So 2026, stabilizing the property which are bleeding cash and paying off two properties. And so these lead me to my different objectives, which is I would like cash to do these issues. In order that guides me to what number of tasks I must tackle all year long to generate the revenue I would like to unravel these issues, reside my life. Make sense?

Dave:It does make sense. I like the mind-set backwards. Lots of people can be like, what number of flips can I do, maximize, after which take that cash and be like, what am I going to do with it? However I actually like eager about it like, what do I must do? After which form of backing into the minimal quantity of labor that you are able to do. That doesn’t imply you won’t tackle extra offers in case you discover alternative, however simply having a superb sense like, okay, I must do two 1 / 4 or one a 12 months. I would like to do this, make sure that I’m hustling on that after which I’ll take every part else that comes from there.

Henry:Yep. I common most likely round like $45,000 internet revenue on a flip and I’d estimate that I must do about 15 tasks to have the ability to repay the properties that I’m seeking to repay and to have the ability to have the revenue essential to proceed to reside and have the ability to stabilize the 4 property I must stabilize. In order that’s my objectives.

Dave:I find it irresistible. I suppose I perceive perhaps why you don’t love a New 12 months’s decision as a result of this sounds prefer it’s a multi-year mission too. It’s not like that is one thing you do in 2026. This can be a piece of a bigger purpose that you’ve been working for and can most likely must hold working in direction of past 2026.

Henry:Yeah. My bigger purpose, ideally, that is … Now they are saying your objectives are imagined to be large and scary, proper? And in company world, they referred to as them stretch objectives. The massive, scary stretch purpose is to have a 3rd of my portfolio paid off 10 years from now. I

Dave:Like that.

Henry:That’s lots. It’s some huge cash. Yeah. Yeah. However I really feel like in case you don’t set an enormous scare … Shoot for the moon land on the celebrities, proper? If I find yourself with half of that paid off, that’s nonetheless going to place me in a particularly sturdy monetary place in 10 years. So the bigger purpose is that. After which what I do every year is tying into that. After which I’ve to regulate every year as a result of yeah, I’ve a purpose of two this 12 months, however what if I solely get one? So then I must take what occurs in 2026 by way of the financial outlook and make new objectives. Perhaps 10 may be too far out. Perhaps I would like to vary it. So I feel I’m not afraid to reevaluate my objectives primarily based on what’s taking place, however I attempt to make all of it tie collectively.

Kathy:I like that. It sounds such as you’re additionally trying on the safety aspect of it as a result of as you begin paying off properties, oh, there’s such aid realizing that if something goes improper and also you simply can’t predict, you’ll be able to’t predict issues like 2020 coming alongside that turned out to not be unhealthy for actual property in any respect. Ended up being a fairly good time for actual property purchased, might have gone the opposite course. And if you’ve received paid off properties, boy, all you need to do is promote a pair and it’ll assist pay for the opposite ones that you just’ve perhaps over leveraged. And I do know that you’ve method over leverage to get to the place you at the moment are and that has labored. However sooner or later you’re like, okay, it’s time to show the ship and pay a few of this off. That’s nice.

Dave:It’s fascinating to listen to each of you’re specializing in optimization as an alternative of development. Is {that a} reflection of the market or simply the place you’re in your private investing journey?

Kathy:That’s a superb query. It was simply the very first thing that got here to thoughts as a result of it’s what I’ve been doing and enthusiastic about. Simply looking at a few of these properties that purchased 10 or 15 years in the past, I actually haven’t paid any consideration to them. For instance, one, it simply vacated and I talked to the property supervisor and he or she goes, “When you replace this by about $20,000, you’ll get about 100,000 further in fairness.” I hadn’t even thought

Speaker 4:About it. Simple.

Kathy:In order that’s thrilling. And if I try this, then we will promote that or hold it, take the cash out. And so it’s nearly like an after the very fact bur,

Speaker 4:10

Kathy:Years later down the street, bur.

Dave:It’s a sluggish burn. A sluggish bur. It simply doesn’t matter. Simply hold optimizing issues over the long term. That is the way in which to do it. It’s completely proper. I like that.

Henry:For me, Dave, it’s extra a perform of the place I’m as an investor as a result of I’m a deal junkie and I like the method of discovering offers. I like shopping for an important deal and I like working property in nice components of the neighborhood. All of it is so enjoyable for me, however sooner or later I’ve to get to a spot the place I’m defending the property I’ve in order that I’ve paid off property to move on to my youngsters. The overarching purpose for my actual property enterprise is for my youngsters to have the ability to be the folks they’re referred to as to be and never the folks they must be for cash. So in the event that they want or need to do one thing that isn’t going to pay them a ton of cash, not less than I’ve these property that will probably be paid off that may present revenue for them.And so to get there, I’ve to repay properties. And so I’ve to attract a line within the sand someplace and begin paying down these property. And in order that’s why I’ve the 10-year purpose attempting to get a few of these paid off in order that I’ve these to move. Now, once I get to that time, Dave, I could begin doing extra offers once more, however I’ll at all times have- You’ll. You’ll.And I’ll most likely nonetheless do offers which are like dwelling run offers alongside the way in which. I’m not saying I’ll by no means purchase one other rental property between now and 10 years from now. I’m simply saying I’m not in aggressive development mode. So optimization is extra necessary to me proper now than development was. And development was extra necessary to me once I first received began. It’s only a shift in the place I’m as an investor.

Dave:All proper. Properly, these are nice resolutions. Thanks. I actually assume these are, clearly they’re not simply resolutions, however simply objectives and good perspective on the place you each are in your investing journey. We’re going to take a fast break, however we’ll come again with my New 12 months’s decision proper after this. The Cashflow Roadshow is again. Me, Henry, and different BiggerPockets personalities are coming to the Texas space from January thirteenth to sixteenth. We’re going to be in Dallas, we’re going to be in Austin, we’re going to Houston, and we now have an entire slate of occasions. We’re positively going to have meetups. We’re doing our first ever reside podcast recording of the BiggerPockets Podcast, and we’re additionally doing our first ever one-day workshop the place Henry and I and different consultants are going to be providing you with hands-on recommendation in your personalised technique. So if you wish to be part of us, which I hope you’ll, go to biggerpockets.com/texas.You may get all the knowledge and tickets there.Welcome again. I’m right here with Henry and Kathy speaking about our New 12 months’s decision. Kathy shared that she’s seeking to optimize her portfolio and study extra about AI. Henry goes to be attempting to pay down a few of his debt and stabilize a few of his property. My New 12 months’s decision for 2026, and I’m with you on this, Henry, that is one thing I’ve been eager about for not less than six months and goes to take me 10 years. However my plan proper now and the factor that I’m specializing in is enacting what I’m calling my finish sport.Hopefully not going anyplace, however I’ve been investing for 15 years now and I really feel like I’ve had these two completely different eras of my very own investing. My first 10 years, I purchased rental properties, I self-managed them, all of them regionally in Denver. These have been the primary 10 years. The final 5 years, then I moved overseas. I used to be dwelling in Europe. I offered some leases. I received fairly into passive investing. I received into lending. I do syndications. I nonetheless personal rental properties, however I’ve form of had this second period. And now I need to transfer. I’m again in the US. I need to transfer into my third act as an actual property investor. And I name it my finish sport as a result of I need to spend the following 10 to fifteen years placing myself into retirement. I’m in a lucky place the place I do really feel like I’ve sufficient capital to do it, however I must rearrange my portfolio into an optimized method in order that 10, 15 years from now, I’m going to have a portfolio that’s simply rock stable.It’s solely property that I actually like. Ideally, they’re paid off or have very low debt on my general portfolio. And I truly assume it’s a superb time to start out buying rental properties proper now. And so I’m seeing alternatives commerce out of a few of my extra passive choices or lending and begin buying the property that I need to personal ideally for the remainder of my life.That’s form of what I’m beginning to consider. And I’m even contemplating, Henry and I have been simply collectively in Seattle. We have been speaking about this, eager about placing issues on 15-year notes, for instance, as an alternative of going to the 30-year repair that I’ve at all times actually used and simply begin pondering, I’m 38 years outdated. At 53, I most likely nonetheless gained’t retire, however I would like the portfolio that I can retire off of and that I wouldn’t want to the touch if I didn’t need to for the remainder of my life to be in place.That’s not going to occur in 2026. That is going to take me most likely not less than 5 years to reposition issues, do some completely different tasks, study a bit bit, however that’s my purpose. That’s the factor I’m actually engaged on.

Speaker 4:Adore it.

Henry:Yeah, no, I feel that that’s simply good monetary planning. It’s just like what I’m eager about as a result of I get pleasure from what I do now. I like chasing offers. I like flipping homes. It’s nonetheless enjoyable and thrilling. And is there annoying components of it? Positive, however I get pleasure from it. However will I nonetheless get pleasure from it in 10 years? Will I simply be uninterested in the chase? I’ve talked to a whole lot of seasoned buyers of their 50s, 60s, and 70s, and the one theme throughout all of them is sooner or later they received uninterested in chasing offers. They received uninterested in churning homes and flipping homes. And so if I can get myself to some extent the place I don’t ever must flip one other home if I don’t need to, however I can nonetheless select to, that’s supreme. And it appears like that’s what you’re attempting to get to.How do I get to the purpose the place if I simply need to sit down and do nothing, I can. I’m taken care of, my household’s taken care of, my legacy’s taken care of, but when I need to go do some cockamamie loopy deal, I can even go try this. Positively.Getting your self to retirement doesn’t imply you need to retire.

Dave:To begin with, I received uninterested in flipping homes earlier than I even received began. So good for you. I did one. That’s all I wanted. I’m at two proper now and I’m drained. And I didn’t even do the GC. You

Henry:Didn’t do the

Dave:Laborious half. I didn’t even do the onerous half. I’m uninterested in it. No, I signed final night time although and getting this factor finished. In order that’s nice. No, that’s precisely proper. For me, it’s not even the flipping. I’m at all times tinkering. I’m similar to an optimizer. I’m at all times transferring cash from right here to there. And I received to cease doing that too. I’ll do a few of it. I’ll hold a few of my cash for enjoyable as a result of for me, that’s enjoyable. Such as you have been speaking about, Henry, you want taking a look at offers. For me, I like investing in passive offers. I like underwriting offers and figuring them out and on the lookout for completely different alternatives, however I must put the rock stable factor again in place as a result of I had a whole lot of nice leases. I don’t remorse promoting any of them, however I’ve not rebuilt my lively portfolio in the way in which I need to but.And in order that’s actually what I’m going to be specializing in. And like I stated, there’s higher and higher offers. It’s not even that costs have gone down that a lot. It’s simply the asset high quality is so significantly better, in my view. And also you’re seeing top quality properties come available on the market. I feel multifamily is trying an increasing number of enticing proper now. And in order that’s the plan for 2026. My different decision, simply so , as at all times, is to go on as many holidays as humanly potential.How do I journey on a regular basis?

Henry:Can we go on document, Dave, and set a stretch decision? You and I?

Dave:Uh-oh.

Henry:Can we set a decision that inside 5 years we land an Anthony Bourdain type TV present the place we journey round, eat meals

Dave:And

Henry:Speak about actual property?

Dave:That is our dream in life. Sure. We want a brand new imaginative and prescient board, you and I. All proper. Properly, this was a whole lot of enjoyable. Thanks guys. I’d love to listen to your New 12 months’s resolutions, proper? We need to hear them. Share them with us within the feedback. We need to hear what your New 12 months’s resolutions are actual estate-wise, fun-wise, lifestyle-wise, as a result of on the finish of the day in actual property, we’re doing this normally not as a result of we simply need to personal or purchase property for one thing, as a result of it frees up one thing else in our lives, spending extra instances with our mates, household, touring, consuming disgusting quantities of meals. For this reason we’re truly right here. So inform us what your resolutions are. Kathy, completely happy New 12 months. Thanks for being right here.

Kathy:Thanks. You too.

Dave:Henry, completely happy new 12 months. Excited for one more 12 months doing available on the market with you each. And James, after all, when he decides to grace us along with his current.

Kathy:Sure. Completely. Thank

Dave:You. Thanks everybody. We’ll see you subsequent time.