Notice: AFAICT, what follows does NOT have any predictive energy,because the likelihood distribution (i.e. purple candles = ~45%) is thought/out there ONLY after the actual fact.
Only a wild journey with just a few ideas/observations on how we people interpret statistics, particularly chances. Presumably fraught with some mathematical error or logical fallacy.If you need to hunt it, learn on…
Let’s have a look at this “as soon as in a 12 yr” incidence, from totally different views.
Beginning with,the distribution of purple and inexperienced candles over the identical interval (~2013-2025)
we’ve got ~600 weekly candles over 12 years,
with the ratio of reds to greens on this interval being round 0.45 : 0.55.
Wanting-up a probability-distribution chart for consecutive streaks/runs,obtained by utilizing the person likelihood, over a sequence of 600 “purple or inexperienced” occasions.
Within the situation with the % of reds being round 0.45,over a sequence of 600 such occasions,we see that the likelihood of a streak of 6-red candles is round 23%.
Notice: fractions/decimals within the heatmap rounded/truncated for brevity.
So,in a situation of 600 candles, with reds occurring round 45% of the time,a streak of 6 consecutive purple candles,had an almost 1 in 4 likelihood of occurring, and it occurred.
Doesn’t sound that uncommon anymore.
Subsequent, wanting on the cumulative likelihood distribution chart(obtained by merely including up the %-s within the earlier chart above),there’s a fair stronger contrasting commentary –
In a situation of 600 candles, with reds occurring round 45% of the time,there seems to be round 94% likelihood of incidence of a streak that’s 6 purple candles or longer.
Notice: Computed over 600 runs. Fractions/decimals within the heatmap rounded/truncated for brevity.
Principally, the identical market-data,might be expressed in 3 totally different statistics,which might be more likely to set off a distinct response…
a. One thing that had a 94% likelihood of incidence, occurred.
b. Over the past 12 years, purple candles are 45% of the weekly NIFTY50 chart.
Hmmm… fascinating. Sounds shut sufficient to 50% although.
c. One thing occurred the primary time in 12 years!
Studying this once more (and once more), i can’t fairly imagine it myself but.Nonetheless, am nonetheless trying to find some deadly flaw within the above that vastly adjustments the maths / refutes the observations. 
If not, then perhaps time to (re)learn How one can Lie with Statistics – Wikipedia as soon as.
