Printed on July 14th, 2025 by Bob Ciura
The S&P 500 has been traditionally overvalued (in hindsight) continuous since 2010 utilizing the Shiller P/E ratio.
The Shiller P/E ratio makes use of a median of 10 years of earnings for the “E” (earnings) within the P/E ratio to easy out outcomes and make the metric related when earnings short-term flip unfavourable, throughout recessions.
The historic common Shiller P/E ratio is 17.3. It’s presently at 38.1. Subsequently, the S&P 500 is 121% overvalued in accordance with the Shiller P/E ratio.
The large takeaway from that is that the market is buying and selling at a really excessive valuation a number of right now, relative to its historical past.
When the market is overvalued, traders ought to look to dividend shares to cut back portfolio volatility, and for dividend revenue which offers a buffer towards falling inventory costs.
For instance, the free excessive dividend shares checklist spreadsheet under has our full checklist of particular person securities (shares, REITs, MLPs, and so on.) with with 5%+ dividend yields.
Shopping for overvalued dividend shares can jeopardize future returns. Even high quality firms can quantity to mediocre or poor investments, if too excessive value is paid.
Falling valuations can result in low (and even unfavourable) complete returns, even together with dividends.
Subsequently, traders ought to be cautious in terms of overvalued dividend shares. The next 10 overvalued dividend shares ought to be averted.
The checklist is sorted by the extent of overvaluation.
Desk of Contents
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #10: Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC)
Annual Valuation Return: -14.0%
Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. is a producer and distributor of manufacturing tools for semiconductor gadgets. The corporate operates in two enterprise segments: Capital Gear and Aftermarket Merchandise & Providers.
It’s headquartered in Singapore and trades on the NASDAQ Trade. Kulicke & Soffa has annual revenues of roughly $700 million.
On Could sixth, 2025, Kulicke & Soffa reported outcomes for the second quarter of fiscal 12 months 2025. For the quarter, income declined 5.8% to $162 million, which was $3.1 million lower than anticipated.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of -$0.52 in contrast favorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of -$0.95 within the prior 12 months.
For the quarter, Automotive, Basic Semi, and Aftermarket Product and Providers had been roughly equal from Q2 2024 whereas Reminiscence declined significantly.
For the quarter, Kulicke & Soffa’s adjusted working margin of (16.9%) was up 1,230 foundation factors year-over-year, however down 2830 foundation factors from Q1 2025.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on KLIC (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #9: Fortitude Gold (FTCO)
Annual Valuation Return: -14.3%
Fortitude Gold Company was spun-off from Gold Useful resource Company right into a separate public firm in December 2021. Fortitude Gold is a junior gold producer with operations in Nevada, U.S.A, one of many world’s premier mining pleasant jurisdictions.
The corporate targets high-grade gold open pit heap leach operations averaging one gram per tonne of gold or higher. Its property portfolio presently consists of 100% possession in seven high-grade gold properties.
All seven properties are inside an approximate 30-mile radius of each other inside the prolific Walker Lane Mineral Belt. The corporate generated $37.3 million in revenues final 12 months, nearly all of which had been from gold, and is predicated in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
On April twenty ninth, 2025, Fortitude Gold launched its first-quarter 2025 outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, revenues got here in at $6.5 million, marking a 20% decline in comparison with Q1 2024.
The lower in income was largely as a consequence of a 41% drop in gold gross sales quantity and a 26% lower in silver gross sales quantity. These declines had been partially offset by a 38% enhance in gold costs and a 38% enhance in silver costs.
Shifting to the underside line, Fortitude reported a mine gross revenue of $3.3 million in comparison with $4.2 million the earlier 12 months, reflecting the decrease internet gross sales.
The corporate additionally introduced a discount in its month-to-month dividend from $0.04 to $0.01 per share, efficient with the Could 2025 fee.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on FTCO (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #8: KKR & Co. (KKR)
Annual Valuation Return: -15.1%
KKR & Co is a worldwide funding firm with property underneath administration (AUM) of $496 billion. KKR operates on 4 enterprise traces: Non-public markets, public markets, capital markets, and principal actions.
KKR manages personal fairness funds that make investments capital for long-term appreciation via the Non-public Markets enterprise line.
KKR & Co launched Q1 2025 outcomes on Could 1st, 2025. In Q1, KKR reported fee-related earnings of $823 million, up 23% year-over-year, and complete working earnings of $1.1 billion, which was a 16% enhance.
Adjusted internet revenue reached $1.0 billion, marking a 20% rise. Payment-related earnings grew 37% to $3.4 billion for the final twelve months, whereas complete working earnings climbed 32% to $4.5 billion.
Adjusted internet revenue totaled $4.4 billion, reflecting a 37% enhance. KKR’s property underneath administration (AUM) rose 15% year-over-year to $664 billion, with fee-paying AUMs up 12% to $526 billion.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on KKR (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #7: HF Sinclair (DINO)
Annual Valuation Return: -15.3%
HF Sinclair was initially shaped by the merger of two impartial U.S. refiners, Holly Company and Frontier Oil, in2011. It operates in three segments: refining, lubricants, and Holly Vitality Companions, which is a midstream entity.
HF Sinclair ought to be considered primarily as a refiner. The refining phase generated 83% of the full working revenue in 2023 however posted a loss in 2024 as a consequence of a collapse in refining margins.
On Could 1st, 2025, HF Sinclair reported outcomes for Q1-2025. Refining margins fell -28% over the prior 12 months’s quarter, because the tailwind from the Ukrainian disaster light. Consequently, the corporate switched from a revenue per share of $0.71 to a loss per share of -$0.27.
Because of the proximity of its refineries to the home oil manufacturing, HF Sinclair buys its crude oil at a reduction to WTI.
Furthermore, HF Sinclair is more likely to profit from the synergies it would obtain from its latest acquisitions of the Puget Sound Refinery and Sinclair Oil.
HF Sinclair has the strongest steadiness sheet in its peer group and it may well endure downturns. The sturdy steadiness sheet is paramount on this cyclical enterprise.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on DINO (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #6: Constellation Vitality (CEG)
Annual Valuation Return: -15.3%
Constellation Vitality Company was spun off from Exelon Company on February 1st, 2022. Constellation Vitality offers clear and sustainable vitality options to houses, business companies, and wholesale prospects reminiscent of municipalities and cooperatives.
The corporate’s vitality merchandise embrace electrical, pure gasoline, and renewables and markets such merchandise to firms of all sizes.
Constellation Vitality operates 13 nuclear crops with a mixed 21 gigawatts of capability. The corporate operates within the decrease 48 U.S. states, Canada, and the UK.
On January tenth, 2025, the corporate introduced that it had agreed to buy Calpine Corp. utilizing a mixture of money and inventory. This transaction will make Constellation Vitality the most important clear vitality supplier within the U.S.
On Could sixth, 2025, Constellation Vitality reported first quarter outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, income grew 8.6% to $6.69 billion, which was $1.35 billion above estimates.
On an adjusted foundation, earnings-per-share totaled $2.14, which in contrast favorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.82 within the prior 12 months, however was $0.08 under expectations.
Constellation Vitality’s nuclear fleet produced 45,582 gigawatt-hours within the first quarter, up from 45,391 gigawatt-hours within the prior 12 months. Nuclear crops achieved a 94.1% capability issue, in comparison with 93.3% in Q1 2024.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on CEG (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #5: Energy Integrations Inc. (POWI)
Annual Valuation Return: -15.5%
Energy Integrations designs and manufactures high-performance digital parts for high-voltage energy conversion techniques.
Notable merchandise embrace the InnoSwitch household of ICs, which integrates major, secondary, and suggestions circuits, and the LYTSwitch ICs, designed for environment friendly LED lighting options.
These merchandise are utilized in cellular gadget chargers, client electronics, lighting, industrial controls, and renewable vitality techniques.
On Could twelfth, 2025, the corporate reported its Q1 outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, the corporate posted internet revenues of $105.5 million that had been up barely sequentially, and up 15% year-over-year.
The year-over-year enhance was pushed by improved efficiency throughout all main finish markets, with notable energy within the client phase, which accounted for 44% of complete gross sales within the quarter.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on POWI (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #4: Hyster Yale (HY)
Annual Valuation Return: -15.8%
Hyster-Yale Supplies Dealing with was based in 1985 and has since develop into a outstanding international participant within the supplies dealing with trade.
The corporate designs, manufactures, and sells a complete vary of raise vehicles and aftermarket components, serving numerous prospects throughout numerous sectors, together with manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics.
The corporate segments its income primarily into three classes: new tools gross sales, components gross sales, and repair revenues.
On Could sixth, 2025, the corporate introduced outcomes for the primary quarter of 2025. The corporate reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.49, in-line with analysts’ estimates, and produced income of $910.4 million, which was down 14.1% year-over-year.
Hyster-Yale opened the 12 months with Q1 2025 consolidated revenues of $910 million, down 14% from final 12 months, as softer raise truck demand carried over from late 2024.
Web revenue dipped to $8.6 million in comparison with $51.5 million a 12 months in the past, as decrease manufacturing volumes and price pressures weighed on margins. Stock ranges improved, down $69 million versus Q1 2024, displaying early progress in aligning manufacturing with present demand tendencies.
Encouragingly, the raise truck phase noticed a notable rebound in bookings, up 13% year-over-year and 48% sequentially, pushed by energy within the Americas and EMEA.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on HY (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #3: Paramount Sources Ltd. (PRMRF)
Annual Valuation Return: -16.0%
Paramount Sources is a Canadian vitality firm. Paramount Sources has a protracted historical past. The corporate was based in 1976 and has been publicly-traded since 1978.
Paramount Sources now owns a much smaller oil and gasoline manufacturing base targeted on the Kaybob area of Alberta together with the Willesden Inexperienced Duvernay space additionally positioned in Alberta.
The corporate introduced its Q1 2025 outcomes on Could thirteenth, 2025. EPS of C$8.74 skyrocketed from C$0.46 within the prior 12 months however outcomes will not be comparable. The overwhelming majority of that revenue was from positive factors on latest asset gross sales together with receiving insurance coverage claims tied to wildfire injury.
Because the firm just lately offered off nearly all of its manufacturing base, ahead earnings will likely be far decrease. Certainly, money circulation from operations slipped from C$1.52 to C$1.01 per share year-over-year.
Analysts are forecasting simply 12 cents of earnings for Q2, which supplies a a lot more true reflection of the corporate’s earnings energy post-asset sale.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on PRMRF (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #2: Wingstop Inc. (WING)
Annual Valuation Return: -16.1%
Wingstop is headquartered in Addison, Texas and franchises and operates eating places underneath the Wingstop model.
The corporate has a protracted monitor file of excessive progress.
Supply: Investor Presentation
On April 30, 2025, Wingstop Inc. reported its monetary outcomes for the fiscal first quarter ended March 29, 2025. Thecompany achieved complete income of $171.1 million, marking a 17.4% enhance in comparison with the identical interval in 2024.
System-wide gross sales grew by 15.7% to $1.3 billion, pushed by a file 126 internet new restaurant openings, representing an 18% internet new unit progress. Home same-store gross sales skilled a modest enhance of 0.5%, whereas company-owned home same-store gross sales grew by 1.4%.
Web revenue surged by 221% to $92.3 million, or $3.24 per diluted share, primarily as a consequence of a $97.2 million achieve from the sale of Wingstop’s non-controlling curiosity in its United Kingdom grasp franchisee, Lemon Pepper Holdings, Ltd.
Adjusted internet revenue stood at $28.3 million, or $0.99 per diluted share, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.87 per share. Adjusted EBITDA elevated by 18.4% year-over-year to $59.5 million.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on WING (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #1: Microchip Expertise (MCHP)
Annual Valuation Return: -20.9%
Microchip Expertise develops, manufactures, and sells sensible, related and safe embedded management options used for all kinds of functions.
These embrace disruptive progress tendencies reminiscent of 5G, synthetic intelligence, Web of Issues (IoT), and autonomous driving, amongst others, in key finish markets reminiscent of automotive, aerospace and protection, communications.
Microchip Expertise generates round $6 billion in annual revenues and is predicated in Chandler, Arizona.
On Could eighth, 2025, Microchip Expertise posted its fiscal This fall outcomes for the quarter ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, internet gross sales had been $970.5 million, down 26.8% from the comparable interval final 12 months.
Decrease revenues continued to mirror weak enterprise circumstances within the semiconductor trade, although administration believes this quarter marked the underside of the downcycle. GAAP gross margins declined from 59.6% final 12 months to 51.6%.
This sustained stress on margins and gross sales led to a internet lack of $156.8 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, in comparison with internet revenue of $154.7 million, or $0.28 per share, final 12 months. On an adjusted foundation, EPS was $0.11 versus $0.57 in This fall-2024.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Positive Evaluation report on MCHP (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Ultimate Ideas
The inventory market has been on an almost uninterrupted rally because the Nice Recession. After a quick downturn through the coronavirus pandemic, the inventory market has as soon as once more raced to file highs.
Consequently, the S&P 500 is now markedly overvalued in accordance with a number of valuation metrics, such because the Shiller P/E ratio.
Subsequently, risk-averse revenue traders ought to be cautious of overvalued dividend shares reminiscent of the ten on this article.
If you’re eager about discovering high-quality dividend progress shares and/or different high-yield securities and revenue securities, the next Positive Dividend assets will likely be helpful:
Excessive-Yield Particular person Safety Analysis
Different Positive Dividend Sources
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