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Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bull construction survived final week’s volatility and now factors “again to the highs,” offered spot holds above $107,000. “While we commerce above $107k, I believe the following transfer is again to the highs, with $112k more likely to act as native assist,” the observe states, including that the agency nonetheless expects worth to commerce into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”
The workforce frames final week’s deleveraging because the “nice reset,” contending that the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past eliminated extra leverage with out breaking weekly construction. On the weekly chart, no main assist was misplaced and the wick all the way down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed right into a $115,000 shut, which Ostium reads as affirmation that momentum stays bullish on larger timeframes. Invalidation is exact: “A weekly shut under final week’s low is now the plain invalidation… shut by $107k… and we’ve a extra urgent concern, the place we undoubtedly then commerce into $99k.”
On the each day, Ostium notes a basic sweep-and-reversal sequence. Worth twice tagged the prior vary excessive close to $126.3k, failed to carry above $123.8k, after which “collapsed,” finally wicking into the 200-day shifting common—an space the desk had flagged as a probable terminal stage for any early-October capitulation.
The view from right here is unambiguous: “Anybody anticipating sub-$100k will stay sidelined for a very long time—should you didn’t get it on the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past, I don’t suppose you’re getting it till we enter a bear market.” Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a each day shut under the 200-DMA, which might put the 360-DMA close to $100,000 in play and represent Ostium’s “line within the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”
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Path dependency issues for the upside name. Ostium expects prior highs round $112,000 to behave as assist and kind a better low, with “acceptance again above ~$116k” setting a rotation to the high quality at $123.8k after which “worth discovery past that.” The desk’s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: “Gun to my head I believe we commerce $125k by early subsequent week and $133k by month-end.”
For merchants, the popular lengthy setup is early-week weak point into $110k–$112k to ascertain a better low, utilizing a each day shut under $107k (laborious cease $105k) as threat, and focusing on a minimum of $121k with scope for a lot larger. A counter-trend quick, in contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and each day shut again under $118k, after which a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—provided that the higher-low hasn’t already shaped.
Positioning proof, in Ostium’s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The agency highlights obliterated open curiosity, Binance Internet Longs again to “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized foundation, and contemporary liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all in keeping with a cleaner tape for development continuation.
The calendar this week is dense however navigable: a speech-heavy week (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), the NY Empire State Manufacturing print, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and US Industrial Manufacturing. Ostium’s framework treats these occasions as potential catalysts quite than development definers; as long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 capabilities as a springboard, the structural bias stays larger towards $133,000.
On the core of the thesis is a binary investor psychology after the purge. “These kinds of occasions mark turning factors: both you at the moment are cemented in your perception that… the bear market has begun… or you might be cemented in your perception that the leverage washout provides us the runway for larger for longer costs into Q1 subsequent 12 months,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly within the latter camp, reiterating that Bitcoin “seems to be extra bullish at present than it did originally of final week.”
Briefly past Bitcoin, Ostium’s cross-asset learn tilts supportive for the crypto beta complicated if near-term circumstances align. For Ethereum, weekly construction “seems to be nothing like a high,” with a decisive shut above trendline resistance and $4,400 anticipated to set off an all-time-high breakout; the workforce believes “ETH trades by $4,950 inside 10 days… towards $5,750 in November,” and sees the This autumn low as possible in.
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On ETH/BTC, the desk calls final week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and finally breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, may cap BTC dominance with out undermining Bitcoin’s personal development. The DXY rally is seen as late-stage: resistance close to 100 and a looming rollover would scale back macro headwinds for threat belongings.
For US equities, Ostium nonetheless expects “larger for longer,” eyeing contemporary SPX highs by month-end and a powerful November as buyback blackouts finish and earnings season progresses; enhancing fairness breadth tends to coincide with constructive crypto flows.
Lastly, in “OTHERS,” the altcoin index printed a historic wick to the 360-week MA earlier than reclaiming assist; with derivatives positioning “completely decimated,” Ostium now expects a better native low, a November reclaim of the yearly open close to $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push towards cycle and ATH resistance—circumstances that normally monitor with a more healthy, much less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.
Taken collectively, the desk’s message is constant throughout timeframes and belongings: the reset did its job, the invalidation is evident at $107,000, $112,000 ought to be the pivot, and the upside waypoint is $133,000, with the macro calendar extra more likely to modulate the trail than to derail the vacation spot. As Ostium summarizes, “While we commerce above $107k… the following transfer is again to the highs.”
At press time, BTC traded at $111,509.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
